The USD/ZAR exchange rate remained under pressure, moving from a high of 19.93 in April last year to the current 16. The South African rand surge may accelerate in the coming weeks, helped by the strong macro data from the country.
South African exports are soaring despite US tariffs
Macro data released on Monday showed that South Africa’s agricultural exports continued rising last year, even as shipments to the United States plunged because of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Exports jumped to $15.1 billion, up by 10% from the same period in 2024. It was the seventh consecutive annual increase, with sales to Africa accounting for most of the sales.
South Africa’s exports soared in other areas, including precious metals, including gold, palladium, and platinum, which benefited from the soaring prices. Gold has jumped to over $5,000, while key metals like platinum peaked at $2,920 and palladium at $2,165.
The country now hopes to become a major player in the rare earth industry., which is becoming popular as tensions between the US and China accelerated. In a statement, the Industrial Development Corporation announced that it backed $20 million in Frontier Rare Earths, a company with assets in the country.
Data compiled by the government showed that South Africa’s economy expanded by about 1.3% in 2025, a figure that is expected to grow to 1.6% this year.
The country has benefited from the ongoing stability because of the ongoing coalition government between the ANC and DA parties.
Most importantly, the load shedding process that continued for years because of Eskom’s mismanagement. The company kept the lights on for 231 consecutive days, citing better maintenance of its plants. As a result, its profit soared by 26%.
The country’s inflation has stabilized in the past few months. Data shows that the headline Consumer Price Index was 3.6%, within the previous target range of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). However, energy costs may rise soon after the energy regulator allowed Eskom to raise tariffs to recoup $3.4 billion after a series of errors.
The next key catalyst for the USD/ZAR pair will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data and consumer price index (CPI) reports. Economists expect the upcoming data to show that the economy added over 70k jobs in January.
The US will also release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index retreated from 2.7% in December to 2.5% in January.
USD/ZAR technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has crashed in the past few months, moving from a high of 19.93 in April to the current 16. It has moved below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued falling in the past few weeks. Also, it has moved below the Strong, Pivot, Reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling, potentially to the ultimate support level of 15.62. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level of 15.
The post USD/ZAR forecast: South African rand jumps as key exports soar despite Trump tariff appeared first on Invezz