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This Bitcoin bull run has sparked a huge debate in the crypto world. Do the traditional four-year cycle patterns still apply or have the rules changed? Many experts argue that this time is different.
Among them is David Bailey, a Bitcoin advocate and Trump adviser, who suggests the current cycle may be entering a whole new era of adoption.
Here’s what that could mean for you.
Why The Next Bear Market Won’t Arrive
Bailey argues there won’t be another Bitcoin bear market for years. He believes the demand base is shifting so strongly that deep, prolonged bear markets won’t return anytime soon.
According to him, the adoption will spread across the entire financial system, from governments and central banks to insurance companies, big corporations, and even pension funds.
Institutions are no longer making small “marginal bets”; they are “flowing in with size,” marking the eternal September of institutional adoption.
Bailey also notes that less than 1% of institutions hold Bitcoin, meaning most demand is still ahead, with less than $1 trillion in liquidity to potentially drive prices toward $1 million per BTC.
With Big Adoption Come Bigger Risks
Skeptics note that treasury companies are struggling and could suffer in the next downturn. They could be forced to sell. Bailey counters that what is happening now is broad, large-scale adoption.
In his view, companies holding Bitcoin will split into winners and losers: those growing their business will trade at a premium, while those burning through their reserves will trade at a discount.
However, the risks are real.
Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long warns that Wall Street still isn’t prepared for how crypto really works. Traditional finance relies on safety nets and slow settlement, while in crypto, everything happens in real-time, and that could catch big institutions off guard.
This cycle is fueled by heavy institutional and corporate buying, which is great for adoption, but it is risky if overleveraged firms dump in a downturn, which could shake the whole system.
The Bull Run Is Here to Stay… For Now
Most agree that this bull run isn’t close to being finished. Investor Lin points out that bull markets tend to last around four years. We are only about 2.5 years into the current ones, so there’s still room to run before this cycle tops out.
Analyst Dan Tapiero also says the current crypto bull market is far from over because most investors (82% in Morgan Stanley’s survey) still don’t own any crypto. When participation is this low, we clearly haven’t reached the stage of broad adoption that usually marks the end of a cycle.
He also highlights that even the people who own Bitcoin and Ethereum today are holding much smaller positions compared to 2022. Tapiero predicts that both adoption and prices will reach record highs during this cycle. As he puts it: “2026 will be a boom year.”
So while the risks remain, most signs point to more upside. With adoption growing and room left in the cycle, the real peak may still lie ahead.